COVID19 Plausibility

Decision making is the most important task of a leader. Information and Facts are the basis of any decision making. Reports are possibly the only source of the Information and Facts, when the leader is in a different location or is managing remotely with work from home, as is the case today. Even when the leader is working from the same location, reports play a significant role in decision making.

Validating the plausibility of the report is primordial to quality information and facts and thus, to quality decision making. Plausibility means the quality of seeming reasonable or probable. I believe confirming plausibility is a core leadership skill.

I had the opportunity to learn and hone this skill during my corporate planning role in Germany, when I had to recommend extremely important and impactful strategic decisions based on the reports I used to receive from the various plants around the world.

I use this skill extensively even today working with my clients as their teams present their performance data during our meetings. Plausibility confirmation, though seems very simple, is extremely complex and intuitive, since within a few seconds, or sometimes even fraction of a second one needs to:

  1. check the data integrity by understanding trend and variations,
  2. identify the cause and effect to validate the data coherence,
  3. recollect and connect the related facts for comparison,
  4. identify suitable benchmarks to assess the performance and,
  5. get the big picture for perceiving from a business perspective.

Based on this plausibility confirmation, I would either ask a question or suggest the next course of measures, for enabling the teams achieve challenging targets, while they enhance their competencies. Over the last 8 years we have enabled our clients achieve 20% increase in Top Line and 15% in bottom line, by delivering through PaaS (Platform as a Service), Online and Face-to-face sessions.

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From this background, today, I went through the COVID19 data and drew some conclusions, which I am sharing in this blog.

The death rate of the COVID19 cases is more or less the same throughout the world, especially after the first wave. However, the numbers in Africa, Asia and India are lower due to the lower average age.

COVID19 Death Rate

The rate of New COVID19 cases in India have been far lesser than the other developed regions, despite the higher population. I have considered Brazil also in the developed group, since one third of the country live in well-developed 6 major cities. In my assessment, this is mainly due to extensive use of HVAC systems in those countries. Whereas in India, the majority of IT and ITES companies which use HVAC systems are still working from home.

COVID19 Positivity Rate

Apart from the mutated COVID19 strain, I attribute the opening of closed spaces like theaters, schools, and many offices as well as relaxation of social distancing norms in closed public transport, this year January onwards as the main driver for the acute increase in COVID19 cases. In my wisdom, more than banning and controlling outdoor gatherings, it is extremely important to impose stringent restrictions for gatherings in closed spaces.

If the gatherings in closed spaces are restricted immediately and social distancing norms enforced outdoor, I believe the second wave of COVID19 will peak to around 5,00,000 cases per day in India by May end then drop to manageable levels by July end.

While I fully encourage people to get vaccinated, I have intentionally left out vaccination in my strategy. Vaccination would, of course, be the main combat strategy once the significantly lower positivity rate is proven with vaccinated people. Unfortunately, despite the vaccination drive having started end of last year, I could not find any data on COVID19 positivity rate of those vaccinated.

I am sure we will discover ways to live with COVID19, which surely is here to stay for a while.

Happy Reading!

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